The projected economic outlook of the next 12 months is better than last year, but the United States may still feel the effects of the recession.
Dave Avdakov, senior portfolio manager for US Bank Private Client Group, gave attendees of the Seneca Regional Chamber of Commerce Economic Forecast Breakfast Tuesday morning a macro-view of what may come in 2012.
Avdakov said 2011 was a difficult year. Following a good year for domestic and global capital markets in 2010 - last year included issues such as European countries struggling and potentially facing default, as well as a string of natural and nuclear disasters in Japan - the U.S. held modest growth at best.
This year, Avdakov said analysts expect the economy to grow 2 percent - a slow process which should pick up during the second half of the year. However, he said a 4 percent growth rate is needed for major economic improvement, and he does not expect that for a few years.
On a positive note, he said he does not expect the country to fall into another recession, but cautioned European defaults or forced oil shortages in Iran could leave the U.S. in a bad position.
While another recession is not likely, many of the changes made during the past few years have lead to an overall shift in thought, and job growth may not pick up greatly as industry has taken a step toward streamlining and technology upgrades to consolidate positions, Avdakov said.
Although there were few specifics available for the immediate area, Avdakov said there may be positive growth for farming and industry.
Agriculture could be up for 20-30 years as the U.S. may need to provide more food for countries such as China and India, that are struggling to feed their populations. With that potential growth, farm land prices could go up as hedge funds have begun buying up farmland.
Also, he expects fewer manufacturing jobs to be transferred overseas, as pay in China has been on the rise and the cost of shipping has increased.
Seneca Regional Chamber of Commerce & Visitor Services is to have another breakfast 7:30 a.m. Feb. 9 at Camden Falls. Representatives from Bridges Academy are to discuss new technology and education.
